Hurricane SERGIO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE SERGIO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
1700 UTC WED NOV 15 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1700Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   X(11)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   6(22)   X(22)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)   5(21)   1(22)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  10(19)   2(21)   X(21)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   7(15)   1(16)   X(16)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 122N 1037W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 122N 1037W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 122N 1037W 64 51  11(62)   4(66)   1(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 
 24 124N 1036W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 24 124N 1036W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 24 124N 1036W 64 35  14(49)   5(54)   2(56)   1(57)   1(58)   X(58)
 
 36 135N 1035W 34 28  32(60)  19(79)   9(88)   2(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 36 135N 1035W 50  5  16(21)  23(44)  11(55)   2(57)   X(57)   1(58)
 36 135N 1035W 64  1   6( 7)  14(21)   7(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
 48 150N 1043W 34  1   7( 8)  24(32)  27(59)  11(70)   1(71)   1(72)
 48 150N 1043W 50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  20(28)   7(35)   1(36)   1(37)
 48 150N 1043W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 
 72 165N 1055W 34  1   1( 2)   4( 6)  22(28)  20(48)   5(53)   1(54)
 72 165N 1055W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   3(22)   X(22)
 72 165N 1055W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 96 180N 1065W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  17(24)   9(33)   1(34)
 96 180N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 96 180N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
120 190N 1070W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   7(22)   2(24)
120 190N 1070W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
120 190N 1070W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     90     90      90      90      80      65      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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