Tropical Storm SERGIO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
0300 UTC WED NOV 15 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  12(14)   6(20)   1(21)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  12(15)   6(21)   1(22)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)  14(22)   4(26)   1(27)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)  11(19)   3(22)   X(22)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 128N 1042W 34 87  12(99)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 128N 1042W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 128N 1042W 64 18  10(28)   3(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
 24 131N 1037W 34 55  23(78)   5(83)   3(86)   2(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 24 131N 1037W 50 16  28(44)   7(51)   3(54)   2(56)   1(57)   X(57)
 24 131N 1037W 64  4  16(20)   6(26)   2(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
 36 136N 1035W 34 20  39(59)  11(70)   6(76)   5(81)   X(81)   1(82)
 36 136N 1035W 50  3  22(25)  13(38)   7(45)   3(48)   X(48)   1(49)
 36 136N 1035W 64  X   9( 9)   9(18)   4(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
 48 146N 1036W 34  2  19(21)  24(45)  14(59)  10(69)   1(70)   1(71)
 48 146N 1036W 50  X   4( 4)  12(16)  10(26)   8(34)   1(35)   X(35)
 48 146N 1036W 64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 
 72 165N 1045W 34  1   1( 2)   6( 8)  14(22)  22(44)   5(49)   1(50)
 72 165N 1045W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  12(16)   2(18)   X(18)
 72 165N 1045W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 175N 1055W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)  19(27)   8(35)   1(36)
 96 175N 1055W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 96 175N 1055W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
120 185N 1065W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  11(13)   8(21)   3(24)
120 185N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
120 185N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     75      80      80      75      65      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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