Tropical Storm SERGIO

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
1500 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   3(17)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   7(15)   3(18)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   2(15)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 134N 1047W 34 70   6(76)   4(80)   1(81)   3(84)   1(85)   X(85)
 12 134N 1047W 50 10  10(20)   8(28)   1(29)   3(32)   1(33)   X(33)
 12 134N 1047W 64  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 24 135N 1050W 34 28  22(50)  11(61)   4(65)   5(70)   1(71)   X(71)
 24 135N 1050W 50  6  13(19)   8(27)   3(30)   3(33)   1(34)   X(34)
 24 135N 1050W 64  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
 36 135N 1050W 34 28  22(50)  11(61)   4(65)   5(70)   1(71)   X(71)
 36 135N 1050W 50  6  13(19)   8(27)   3(30)   3(33)   1(34)   X(34)
 36 135N 1050W 64  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
 48 140N 1050W 34 18  25(43)  11(54)   6(60)   7(67)   2(69)   1(70)
 48 140N 1050W 50  3  10(13)   8(21)   4(25)   6(31)   2(33)   X(33)
 48 140N 1050W 64  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
 
 72 155N 1055W 34  X   3( 3)  13(16)  12(28)  17(45)   7(52)   1(53)
 72 155N 1055W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   9(16)   3(19)   1(20)
 72 155N 1055W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 170N 1060W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)  16(24)  10(34)   3(37)
 96 170N 1060W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 96 170N 1060W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
120 185N 1070W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)   5(24)
120 185N 1070W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
120 185N 1070W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     55      65      70      70      70      65
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN