Tropical Storm SERGIO

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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
2100 UTC SAT NOV 18 2006
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SERGIO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 104.7W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 104.7W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 107.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.1N 108.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 104.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
 
 
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