Hurricane SERGIO

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HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2006
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SERGIO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 102.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.5N 102.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.2N 103.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 102.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
 
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