Hurricane SERGIO

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HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
1500 UTC WED NOV 15 2006
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 104.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.2N 103.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 103.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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