Tropical Storm SERGIO

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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
0300 UTC WED NOV 15 2006
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 12.8N 104.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.1N 103.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.6N 103.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 104.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 104.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
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FORECASTER RHOME
 
 
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