Tropical Storm SERGIO

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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
2100 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.5W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.5W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 104.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.1N 104.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.3N 104.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 104.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
 
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