Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
0500 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 104.5W AT 14/0500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 104.5W AT 14/0500Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.0N 105.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 106.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 104.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
 
 
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