Tropical Storm PAUL

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
1500 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.1N 108.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 106.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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