Hurricane JOHN

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85   
KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
YUMA AZ        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X  10(10)  16(26)   2(28)   X(28)   1(29)   X(29)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34 95   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
LA PAZ         50 73   2(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
LA PAZ         64 21   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
LORETO         34  7  59(66)   8(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
LORETO         50  1  26(27)   5(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
LORETO         64  X   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   5( 5)  13(18)   3(21)   1(22)   1(23)   X(23)
BAHIA KINO     50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUAYMAS        34  1  11(12)  12(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
GUAYMAS        50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  2  12(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)   1(19)   X(19)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  6   6(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CULICAN        34 14   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 250N 1108W 34 76  13(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 12 250N 1108W 50 37  13(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 12 250N 1108W 64 10   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 24 261N 1118W 34  3  60(63)  11(74)   X(74)   X(74)   1(75)   X(75)
 24 261N 1118W 50  1  21(22)   5(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 24 261N 1118W 64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 36 272N 1128W 34  1  20(21)  25(46)   2(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 36 272N 1128W 50  X   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 272N 1128W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 282N 1140W 34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   5(20)   3(23)   1(24)   X(24)
 48 282N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 48 282N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 297N 1163W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 72 297N 1163W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 297N 1163W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 305N 1180W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 96 305N 1180W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 305N 1180W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     75     55      35      25      20      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
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