Hurricane JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110
KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 4(24) X(24)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 48(50) 28(78) 6(84) 4(88) X(88) X(88)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 19(19) 31(50) 9(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 8( 8) 24(32) 6(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 47(49) 29(78) 5(83) 4(87) X(87) X(87)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 18(18) 32(50) 8(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 8( 8) 22(30) 7(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
LA PAZ 34 1 13(14) 37(51) 16(67) 6(73) 1(74) X(74)
LA PAZ 50 X 2( 2) 18(20) 12(32) 4(36) 1(37) X(37)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16)
LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 11(28) 2(30) 1(31)
LORETO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 1 8( 9) 21(30) 8(38) 5(43) 1(44) X(44)
CULICAN 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MAZATLAN 34 4 14(18) 6(24) 3(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29)
MAZATLAN 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 9 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
P VALLARTA 34 25 2(27) 2(29) X(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MANZANILLO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 67 4(71) 1(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 18 5(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) 1(26) X(26)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 5 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 207N 1076W 34 97 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 207N 1076W 50 84 7(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
12 207N 1076W 64 64 12(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
24 220N 1088W 34 30 57(87) 6(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
24 220N 1088W 50 5 58(63) 10(73) 1(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75)
24 220N 1088W 64 1 41(42) 10(52) 2(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55)
36 228N 1101W 34 2 42(44) 32(76) 7(83) 4(87) X(87) X(87)
36 228N 1101W 50 X 16(16) 31(47) 9(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59)
36 228N 1101W 64 X 7( 7) 23(30) 6(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39)
48 233N 1114W 34 1 10(11) 36(47) 17(64) 10(74) 1(75) X(75)
48 233N 1114W 50 X 2( 2) 19(21) 15(36) 8(44) 1(45) X(45)
48 233N 1114W 64 X X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26)
72 240N 1140W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 25(47) 8(55) X(55)
72 240N 1140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 4(23) X(23)
72 240N 1140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11)
96 240N 1180W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 1(23)
96 240N 1180W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
96 240N 1180W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
120 240N 1220W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
120 240N 1220W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 240N 1220W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 115 115 110 100 85 65 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
NNNN
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