Hurricane JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110
KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 8(24) 1(25)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 10(10) 37(47) 18(65) 12(77) 1(78) 1(79)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 16(36) 9(45) 2(47) X(47)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 11(11) 39(50) 18(68) 11(79) 1(80) X(80)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 17(40) 10(50) 1(51) X(51)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 12(12) 10(22) 8(30) 1(31) X(31)
LA PAZ 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 23(49) 19(68) 3(71) 1(72)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 15(33) 3(36) X(36)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 18(28) 5(33) X(33)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 10(18) 2(20) X(20)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 10(31) 2(33) X(33)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULICAN 34 X 4( 4) 20(24) 19(43) 12(55) 2(57) X(57)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
MAZATLAN 34 2 30(32) 17(49) 4(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56)
MAZATLAN 50 X 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19)
MAZATLAN 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 16 39(55) 4(59) 2(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63)
SAN BLAS 50 1 14(15) 2(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
SAN BLAS 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
P VALLARTA 34 63 17(80) 1(81) 1(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83)
P VALLARTA 50 12 20(32) 1(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
P VALLARTA 64 4 9(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 75 1(76) X(76) X(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MANZANILLO 50 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
MANZANILLO 64 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
L CARDENAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 22 64(86) 4(90) 1(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 2 56(58) 7(65) 1(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 34(34) 7(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 193N 1059W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 193N 1059W 50 85 7(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
12 193N 1059W 64 70 11(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
24 213N 1072W 34 16 71(87) 6(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
24 213N 1072W 50 2 62(64) 10(74) 1(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76)
24 213N 1072W 64 X 44(44) 11(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57)
36 224N 1086W 34 2 37(39) 37(76) 7(83) 4(87) X(87) X(87)
36 224N 1086W 50 X 11(11) 37(48) 8(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61)
36 224N 1086W 64 X 5( 5) 27(32) 7(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43)
48 230N 1098W 34 X 11(11) 38(49) 17(66) 12(78) 1(79) 1(80)
48 230N 1098W 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 15(38) 11(49) 1(50) X(50)
48 230N 1098W 64 X X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 7(28) 1(29) X(29)
72 238N 1123W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 27(50) 9(59) X(59)
72 238N 1123W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 5(28) X(28)
72 238N 1123W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) X(15)
96 240N 1165W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 2(29)
96 240N 1165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)
96 240N 1165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
120 240N 1210W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
120 240N 1210W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 240N 1210W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 115 115 115 110 100 75 55
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: