Hurricane JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115
KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 2(22)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 30(43) 25(68) 4(72) 1(73)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 21(38) 2(40) 1(41)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) X(22) 1(23)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 30(44) 26(70) 3(73) 1(74)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 21(40) 2(42) 1(43)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 1(23) X(23)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 34(57) 6(63) X(63)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 3(30) X(30)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 8(30) 1(31)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) 3(29) 1(30)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 22(44) 4(48) 1(49)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 2(18) 1(19)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MAZATLAN 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 15(39) 8(47) 1(48) X(48)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 2 18(20) 28(48) 4(52) 4(56) X(56) 1(57)
SAN BLAS 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
P VALLARTA 34 2 52(54) 18(72) 2(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76)
P VALLARTA 50 X 14(14) 19(33) 2(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36)
P VALLARTA 64 X 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 25 64(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 2 58(60) 5(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 37(37) 3(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
MANZANILLO 34 42 46(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
MANZANILLO 50 4 55(59) 2(61) X(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62)
MANZANILLO 64 1 29(30) 1(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
L CARDENAS 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
L CARDENAS 50 42 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
L CARDENAS 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ACAPULCO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 21(22) 47(69) 8(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 36(39) 8(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 19(20) 8(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 176N 1036W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 176N 1036W 50 81 8(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
12 176N 1036W 64 60 11(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
24 193N 1056W 34 9 74(83) 6(89) X(89) X(89) 1(90) X(90)
24 193N 1056W 50 1 56(57) 12(69) X(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70)
24 193N 1056W 64 X 36(36) 12(48) X(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49)
36 210N 1073W 34 1 21(22) 52(74) 9(83) 3(86) X(86) X(86)
36 210N 1073W 50 X 4( 4) 41(45) 12(57) 4(61) 1(62) X(62)
36 210N 1073W 64 X 1( 1) 27(28) 10(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41)
48 223N 1087W 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 29(64) 14(78) 2(80) X(80)
48 223N 1087W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 25(37) 11(48) 2(50) X(50)
48 223N 1087W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30)
72 235N 1115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 32(49) 10(59) 1(60)
72 235N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 6(28) X(28)
72 235N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15)
96 240N 1150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 21(33) 4(37)
96 240N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12)
96 240N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
120 240N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13)
120 240N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
120 240N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 125 125 125 120 105 90 75
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
NNNN
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