Hurricane JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 36(54) 8(62) 1(63)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 5(31) X(31)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 35(52) 8(60) 1(61)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 5(29) X(29)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 27(34) 10(44) 1(45)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 2(16)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 6(28) 1(29)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 11(34) 1(35) 1(36)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 17(41) 8(49) X(49) X(49)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P VALLARTA 34 1 10(11) 40(51) 12(63) 6(69) X(69) X(69)
P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 50(52) 27(79) 4(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 15(15) 33(48) 4(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 4( 4) 22(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
MANZANILLO 34 2 57(59) 21(80) 3(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84)
MANZANILLO 50 X 20(20) 24(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
MANZANILLO 64 X 5( 5) 14(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
L CARDENAS 34 65 19(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
L CARDENAS 50 12 25(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
L CARDENAS 64 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 67 5(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 12 6(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ACAPULCO 34 23 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
P MALDONADO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 11(19) 5(24) X(24)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) 29(61) 11(72) 1(73) X(73)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 7(37) 1(38) 1(39)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 165N 1024W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 165N 1024W 50 86 7(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
12 165N 1024W 64 54 15(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
24 180N 1042W 34 14 74(88) 6(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
24 180N 1042W 50 1 61(62) 10(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
24 180N 1042W 64 X 36(36) 14(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
36 195N 1060W 34 1 23(24) 49(73) 9(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84)
36 195N 1060W 50 X 4( 4) 43(47) 12(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62)
36 195N 1060W 64 X 1( 1) 26(27) 10(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40)
48 209N 1077W 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 34(65) 15(80) 2(82) X(82)
48 209N 1077W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) 12(50) 2(52) X(52)
48 209N 1077W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 9(29) 1(30) X(30)
72 222N 1107W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 35(51) 10(61) 1(62)
72 222N 1107W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 7(29) 1(30)
72 222N 1107W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16)
96 228N 1140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 20(34) 5(39)
96 228N 1140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12)
96 228N 1140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
120 230N 1180W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15)
120 230N 1180W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
120 230N 1180W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110 120 120 115 105 90 75
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
NNNN
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