Hurricane JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 34(46) 10(56) 1(57)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 6(27) 1(28)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 34(45) 8(53) 1(54)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 5(24) X(24)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 10(37) 2(39)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 5(22) 1(23)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) 2(25) 1(26)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 16(30) 8(38) 1(39) X(39)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 16(51) 7(58) 1(59) X(59)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 20(21) 46(67) 7(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 30(33) 6(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 14(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
MANZANILLO 34 2 26(28) 38(66) 4(70) 2(72) 1(73) X(73)
MANZANILLO 50 X 3( 3) 27(30) 4(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
L CARDENAS 34 28 44(72) 2(74) X(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75)
L CARDENAS 50 2 24(26) 3(29) X(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
L CARDENAS 64 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 50 18(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 6 13(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ACAPULCO 34 44 2(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
ACAPULCO 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P MALDONADO 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 4(31) 1(32)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 30(47) 13(60) 1(61) 1(62)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) 1(27) 1(28)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 160N 1017W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 160N 1017W 50 86 7(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
12 160N 1017W 64 56 14(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
24 172N 1037W 34 14 75(89) 6(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
24 172N 1037W 50 2 61(63) 11(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
24 172N 1037W 64 X 37(37) 12(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
36 188N 1057W 34 1 19(20) 56(76) 8(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86)
36 188N 1057W 50 X 3( 3) 45(48) 12(60) 2(62) 1(63) X(63)
36 188N 1057W 64 X 1( 1) 25(26) 11(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39)
48 202N 1076W 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 37(65) 15(80) 1(81) 1(82)
48 202N 1076W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 14(52) 1(53) X(53)
48 202N 1076W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30)
72 218N 1110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 41(51) 12(63) 1(64)
72 218N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 8(30) X(30)
72 218N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 1(17)
96 225N 1145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 25(37) 6(43)
96 225N 1145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15)
96 225N 1145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
120 225N 1180W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21)
120 225N 1180W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
120 225N 1180W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 115 120 120 115 110 100 90
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: