Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNINGS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO MULEGE...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF
MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO FROM ALTATA
TO GUAYMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.4N 110.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.5N 110.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.7N 111.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  25SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  25SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 109.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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