Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  954 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 108.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.9N 110.0W...INLAND NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.8N 112.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.5N 114.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.3N 116.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 26.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.5N 123.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 108.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
 
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