Hurricane JOHN

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST....AND FROM SANTE FE SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD
TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF EL
ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO MAZATLAN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.6N 104.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.4N 106.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.8N 107.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 103.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
 
NNNN