Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
 
THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO
INVESTIGATE JOHN THIS MORNING JUST AFTER THE EYE REAPPEARED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  A 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 126 KT WAS
REPORTED ON THE OUTBOUND LEG NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THIS REDUCES
TO 113 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A DROPSONDE
MEASUREMENT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL.  FURTHERMORE... DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.0 OR 115 KT.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND JOHN HAS
NOW REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE.  OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...AND THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS... CONSEQUENTLY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND MAINTAINS JOHN AS A CATEGORY FOUR
THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER WHICH...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE
TO THE HURRICANE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTERING
COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND PARALLEL VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONU. THERE REMAINS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AFTER THREE DAYS...AND THE GFDL MODEL STILL TAKES JOHN
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FROM THE AIRCRAFT
OBSERVATIONS.  THE UPDATED TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST AND THE
EXPANDED WIND RADII HAVE PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO
ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 16.6N 102.3W   115 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.6N 103.6W   125 KT
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W   125 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 21.0N 107.3W   125 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 22.3N 108.7W   120 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 24.0N 115.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     04/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
 
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