Hurricane HECTOR

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006               
1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 169N 1274W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 169N 1274W 50 72  11(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 12 169N 1274W 64 36  16(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 
 24 178N 1292W 34 28  54(82)   6(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 24 178N 1292W 50  2  39(41)   8(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 24 178N 1292W 64  X  17(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 36 187N 1308W 34  3  28(31)  27(58)   5(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 36 187N 1308W 50  X   4( 4)  17(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 36 187N 1308W 64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 48 196N 1323W 34  1   6( 7)  19(26)  11(37)   3(40)   1(41)   X(41)
 48 196N 1323W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 48 196N 1323W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 210N 1345W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 72 210N 1345W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 210N 1345W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 220N 1370W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 96 220N 1370W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 220N 1370W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 225N 1400W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 225N 1400W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 225N 1400W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     80     70      60      45      30      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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