Hurricane CARLOTTA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006               
0900 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 73  19(92)   X(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
ISLA CLARION   50 29  29(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
ISLA CLARION   64 13  17(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 182N 1142W 34 90   6(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 12 182N 1142W 50 58  12(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 12 182N 1142W 64 37   7(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
 24 184N 1161W 34  7  58(65)   8(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 24 184N 1161W 50  1  26(27)   7(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 24 184N 1161W 64  X   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 36 186N 1180W 34  1  14(15)  28(43)   7(50)   1(51)   1(52)   X(52)
 36 186N 1180W 50  X   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 36 186N 1180W 64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 188N 1200W 34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  14(26)   6(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 48 188N 1200W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 188N 1200W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 190N 1230W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   2(15)   1(16)
 72 190N 1230W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 190N 1230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 195N 1255W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 96 195N 1255W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 195N 1255W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 200N 1280W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
120 200N 1280W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 200N 1280W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     60      50      45      35      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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