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Hurricane EMILY


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HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

...EMILY CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES
   NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL AREAS......
...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
 
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...
230 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 160 MILES...
260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO...AND EMILY COULD STILL BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.  DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42002
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF EMILY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
76 MPH...110 KM/HR. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF
FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS  956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.3 N... 95.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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