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Hurricane OPHELIA


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162005
0300Z MON SEP 12 2005
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  76.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 175SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  76.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  76.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.2N  77.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N  77.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.2N  77.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N  77.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N  76.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 42.0N  68.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N  76.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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