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Hurricane OPHELIA


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162005
1500Z SUN SEP 11 2005
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.  THE HURRICANE WATCH
MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N  75.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N  75.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N  75.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.6N  75.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.9N  76.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.2N  76.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.7N  76.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.5N  74.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 40.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N  75.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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