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Hurricane EMILY


ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
2100Z SAT JUL 16 2005
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PROGRESO.  A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL
TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.  A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS
EVENING.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  78.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  937 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  30SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE  80SE  50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 215SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  78.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  78.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.7N  81.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  30SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE  80SE  50SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.1N  84.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N  87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.6N  90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N  96.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  70SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 26.0N 104.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  78.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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