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Hurricane EMILY


ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
1500Z SAT JUL 16 2005
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAS MUJERES.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.  THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  77.3W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  30SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  77.3W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  76.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.1N  79.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  30SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N  83.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...135NE  90SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N  86.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.3N  89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N  94.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  70SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N  99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 26.0N 103.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  77.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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