Hurricane MAX
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TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005
DEEP CONVECTION IS VANISHING...AND SO THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON MAX'S
STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 45 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND CONTINUED DECAY OVER COOL WATERS IS
EXPECTED. IF NO DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS...MAX COULD BE DECLARED A
REMNANT LOW BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/4. 12Z MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX AND BRING A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS PRODUCES A MUCH SLOWER
WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WITH A SOUTHWARD TREND LATE AS LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLIES
OVERSWEEP THE AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD
AND SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 21.7N 121.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 21.7N 121.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 21.7N 122.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 23/0600Z 21.5N 123.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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