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Tropical Storm TAMMY


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005
 
AT 13Z THE CENTER OF TAMMY PASSED OVER NOAA BUOY 41009...WHICH
REPORTED A PRESSURE JUST UNDER 1004 MB.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY
AND NWS RADAR INDICATE THAT TAMMY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT
12 KT.  THIS RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK MAY BE A RESPONSE TO
THE ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION...WHICH REMAINS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  TAMMY IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE CENTER WILL JUMP OR
REFORM TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION.  THE 00Z
CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON TAMMY
OVERNIGHT...AND I AM GIVING THIS MODEL MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT
OF WEIGHT THIS MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BECAUSE TAMMY IS MOVING
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA COAST...AND BECAUSE MOST OF THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...THE
PRECISE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LANDFALL OF THE CENTER IS OF
RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPORTANCE.

DOPPLER RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS ALOFT...ABOUT
35 KT.  BASED ON EARLIER SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS THE INTENSITY IS
PRESUMED TO STILL BE NEAR 35 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE STORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE JUST
A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO
PREVENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.
  
TAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 28.9N  80.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 30.2N  81.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 31.4N  82.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 32.3N  83.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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