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Hurricane PHILIPPE


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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
 
WESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE NEAR 23N
61W CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PHILIPPE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 
REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IN
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVERNIGHT POSITION ESTIMATES 
WERE NOT BAD AND ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO BE
MADE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT.  A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT DETECT ANY
BELIEVABLE 50 KT WIND VECTORS AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/5. THE FORECAST REASONING
THROUGH 72 HOURS REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.  THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL BACK OFF ON ABSORPTION AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A 5 DAY
FORECAST POINT. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE IN THAT SOLUTION...THE 5
DAY FORECAST POINT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED WESTWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

DESPITE THE CURRENT SHEARED CONDITION OF PHILIPPE...AND WITH NO
DECREASE IN SHEAR LIKELY...IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS RE-INTENSIFY PHILIPPE.  OUT OF
DEFERENCE TO THIS GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A LITTLE
RESTRENGTHENING...BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING SEEMS JUST AS LIKELY.   

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 20.2N  57.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 21.5N  57.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 23.8N  58.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 26.0N  58.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 28.5N  59.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 34.5N  57.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 38.5N  50.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 41.5N  44.0W    45 KT
 
 
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