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Tropical Storm PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
 
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED SOME MORE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER...AND BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  AS A RESULT... DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.0...SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT. 
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SINCE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG
ABOUT 25N IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AND PROVIDE A
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING
PHILIPPE TO 85 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THEN FOLLOWS THE GFDL IN
FORECASTING ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/6 IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...PERHAPS DUE TO THE CENTER BEING DRAWN IN THAT
DIRECTION BY THE LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH TAKES THE
DEVELOPING STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CELLS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT NECESSITATE ANY WATCHES
OR WARNINGS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 15.2N  55.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N  56.2W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.1N  57.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.2N  58.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.4N  58.8W    75 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 22.0N  60.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N  61.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     23/1200Z 27.0N  62.0W   100 KT
 
 
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