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Hurricane OPHELIA


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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
OPHELIA IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME OF
ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS.  RECON MEASURED AT 06Z A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ONLY AS
AS STRONG AS 63 KT...WELL EAST OF THE CENTER.  DROPSONDES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT MEASURED ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE ABOUT 120
N MI FROM THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE RECON DATA...THE WIND RADII IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED... AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 50 KT.  THE INCREASING RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SEEN ON SATELLITE... WITH
DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED DOWNSHEAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK BAND
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD...ARE INDICATIONS THAT OPHELIA WILL SOON BE
EXTRATROPICAL.  HOWEVER...IT COULD MAINTAIN MUCH OF ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY WHILE TRAVERSING THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A GOOD BIT FASTER THAN
BEFORE...040/18.  OPHELIA IS NOW CAUGHT UP IN THE MIDLATITUDE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S.  MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE GRADUAL
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BEND IN THE PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT JUST A
LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE... AND THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 39.5N  70.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 42.1N  67.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 45.4N  62.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 48.0N  56.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 49.6N  49.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 52.5N  35.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 57.0N  19.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     22/0600Z 62.5N   7.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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