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Hurricane OPHELIA


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005
 
A LAST MINUTE RECON REPORT AT 0220Z SUPPORTS WHAT WAS NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THAT IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTERS BY
ALMOST 60 NMI. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SHEARING
APART...BUT RATHER...THE VORTEX IS JUST TILTED DOWNSTREAM BY THE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
ALSO RISEN TO 998 MB AND THE RECON WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 50 KT AT 850 MB. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED...SO I AM HOLDING THE INTENSITY
AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION AND SPEED WAS ORIGINALLY SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...
BUT THE TIMELY FIX BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FLIGHT CREW
INDICATES OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...
040 DEGREES...AT 13 KT. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATING OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN 24 HOURS...WHICH ALSO KEEPS
THE CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. AFTER
24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HOURS AND THEN TURN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
INCREASING SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER WATER IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OPHELIA
NOW. THE 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE
5 MB RISE IN PRESSURE...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OF
MOTION. THE WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT BASED ON A 00Z SHIP REPORT. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS DECREASING...INCREASING BAROCLINIC EFFECTS FROM AN
APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP OPHELIA
A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 37.8N  72.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 40.0N  70.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 43.5N  65.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 46.5N  60.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 48.7N  53.8W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 52.2N  38.9W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 55.0N  22.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     22/0000Z 61.0N   9.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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