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Hurricane OPHELIA


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005
 
OPHELIA IS PRESENTING A SHEARED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.  RADAR POSITION FIXES FROM COASTAL WSR-88DS ARE EAST OF
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE POSITIONS...SUGGESTING THE VORTEX IS
TILTED.  THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 996
MB...ALONG WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON THIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7.  OPHELIA IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES...AND AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN
THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE.  THIS SHOULD BE
FOLLOWED AFTER 72 HR BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDE. 
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW TRACK
IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE OLD TRACK...WHICH REQUIRES A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME.
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AS
OPHELIA REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER.  AFTER 24 HR...COLDER
WATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 36-48 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 35.7N  74.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 37.1N  73.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 39.8N  70.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 42.8N  66.7W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 46.0N  60.8W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 50.0N  47.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 53.0N  32.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/1200Z 53.0N  19.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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