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Hurricane OPHELIA


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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005
 
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND RECONAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT OPHELIA
CONTINUES TO LOSE ORGANIZATION...WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
VISIBLE ON RADAR LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
DETERMINED BY AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDES.  FIRST SATELLITE IMAGES
AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED TO
THE EASTERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON
850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT...AND DROPSONDES REPORTING
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE.

OPHELIA IS SOUTH OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH
ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER BERMUDA...HAS BEEN IMPEDING
THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS. AS THIS TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO FORCE OPHELIA ON A PATH
CLOSE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANDIAN MARITIMES. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK BUT WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  HOWEVER...THE
TILT OF THE VORTEX INDICATES THAT SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
STORM STRUCTURE...AND SHOULD OPHELIA SHEAR OFF IT WOULD PROBABLY
NOT ACCELERATE AS RAPIDLY AS FORECAST.  ASSUMING THE TRACK IS
ROUGHLY CORRECT...OPHELIA WILL BE OVER 20C WATER IN 36 HOURS AND
WOULD LIKELY BE EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN MARKEDLY THIS EVENING BUT THERE HAS BEEN ONLY
A MODEST DECREASE IN THE WINDS.  ALL THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. 
AGAIN...SHOULD OPHELIA BECOME SHEARED IT WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN MORE
RAPIDLY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 35.1N  74.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 36.1N  74.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 38.0N  72.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 41.0N  69.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 44.0N  64.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 48.5N  51.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 52.0N  36.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/0600Z 54.0N  21.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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