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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
 
SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH
CIRCULATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM...REDUCING
THE SHEAR...AND THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM
WATERS FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK SO LITTLE MOTION
IS ANTICIPATED BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND
BE NEAR THE EAST COST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
 
FORECASTER AVILA

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 26.5N  78.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 27.0N  79.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 27.6N  79.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 28.0N  79.7W    50 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 28.5N  80.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 29.0N  80.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 29.5N  81.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 30.5N  82.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 
 
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