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Hurricane NATE


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TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING WAS VERY REVEALING ON THE LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE OF NATE.  THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS... ABOUT 90 NM... IN COMBINATION WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
DISTRIBUTION.  IN ADDITION... SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT NATE
CONTINUES TO HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR.  THEREFORE NATE IS BEING DECLARED AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...THOUGH IT HAS A FEW CHARACTERISTICS OF A REMNANT LOW AS
WELL.  QUIKSCAT SHOWED WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT SO THIS WILL BE
IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  NO SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.

NATE CONTINUES TO ZIP ALONG TO THE EAST... ABOUT 085/20.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE... WITH NATE BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  A GRADUAL BEND TO
A NORTHEAST TRACK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. 
THIS FRONT SHOULD ABSORB THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN AZORES COULD RECEIVE GALE-FORCE
WINDS WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF NATE.  THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON NATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 34.6N  44.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 35.0N  41.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 36.5N  37.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 39.5N  32.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 44.0N  28.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     13/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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