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Hurricane NATE


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HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE
THIS MORNING FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85 KT IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH CONFIRMS THE 75-KT SATELLITE-BASED
INTENSITY USED IN THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES...AND THAT IS THE
INTENSITY USED IN THIS ADVISORY. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED
IN SATELLITE APPEARNCE...WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY THE FLIGHT CREW .
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. NATE HAS FINALLY ROUNDED THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NATE'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...COOLER WATER AND STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING AND
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
AZORES.
 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 30.2N  64.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 31.2N  63.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 32.9N  60.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 34.5N  55.9W    75 KT
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 36.0N  50.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 40.0N  38.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 44.0N  28.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0600Z 48.1N  18.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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