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Tropical Storm MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ITS SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT THE OUTFLOW
IS EXPANDING PRIMARILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. SINCE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
AND NOW THAT SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS BOTH FORECAST MARIA TO BE A
HURRICANE WITH 85 KNOTS...I AM CONFIDENT IN BRINGING THE WINDS UP A
LITTLE BIT MORE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY WHEN THE GFS DISSIPATES THE
CYCLONE SOON. 

IT APPEARS THAT MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES
AT 11 KNOTS...TRAPPED IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST AND
THE WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE UPPER-LOW
WEAKENS...MARIA SHOULD TURN MORE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A NEW DEVELOPING
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.   MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED INDICATING A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND
NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 22.0N  50.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 23.3N  52.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 25.5N  53.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 28.0N  54.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 30.0N  55.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 32.5N  56.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 34.0N  57.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 36.0N  58.0W    65 KT
 
 
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