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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN REMAINS IN A SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED
AT THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RECTANGULAR CONVECTIVE MASS WITH TOPS
COLDER THAN -70C.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL
AGENCIES...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9...JUST A TRIFLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION IS
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE A INITIAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL FOLLOW IT.  THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24
HR...A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 120 HR...AND A LITTLE
FASTER.  

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL...DISSIPATE
THE SYSTEM BEFORE 120 HR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL
CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 84 HR...AND THE
ECMWF HOLDS ON TO IT THROUGH 120 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES... CALLING FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM FOR
24 HR...ANY PERSISTENT BURST CONVECTION COULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A
STORM AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT 24 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 20.6N  48.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 21.6N  49.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 23.2N  50.9W    35 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 25.0N  52.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 26.8N  53.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 29.5N  55.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 32.0N  56.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     07/0600Z 34.5N  56.5W    50 KT
 
 
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