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Hurricane EMILY


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF EMILY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
HAVE CONTINUED WESTWARD. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15-20
KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/02. THE WELL-DEFINED
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD AND REACH THE
WEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 110W AND 112W LONGITUDE IN 36-48 HOURS
AND MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NO REGENERATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC OWING TO THE COLD WATER THAT LIES
WEST OF BAJA.

WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
INDICATES A PERSISTENT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIES ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  SO WHILE EMILY IS NO LONGER
TECHNICALLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5
INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR COMES IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLOWS UPSLOPE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES FROM THIS
DECAYING SYSTEM.

THIS WILL BE THE FINALLY ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 25.0N 101.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 24HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 
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