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Hurricane EMILY


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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005
 
DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VELOCITIES
THAT SUPPORTED 110 KT RIGHT AT LANDFALL...WITH APPROXIMATE SURFACE
WIND ESTIMATES ALONG THE COAST OF 100 KT RIGHT UP UNTIL ABOUT 1330Z
AFTER EMILY HAD MOVED INLAND. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST HOUR...
DOPPLER VELOCITIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 100 KT...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 90 KT. EVEN THOUGH EMILY IS AT LEAST 30 N MI
INLAND...IT STILL HAS GOOD INNER-CORE STRUCTURE AND BOTH THE EYE
AND EYEWALL REMAIN WELL DEFINED...AS DOES THE OUTFLOW PATTERN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS FINALLY A STEADY 280/09. UPPER AIR DATA AT 12Z
INDICATES THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS HAS
REMAINED INTACT AND HAS BUILT WESTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP EMILY ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. BY
24 HOURS...THE 10000 FT PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN
RANGE WILL LIKELY SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN BEHIND EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE...WHILE THE REST
OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER WESTWARD.
 
EMILY SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
WELL INLAND BY 12 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS BEING MAINTAINED
AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE LARGE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD THAT
EXISTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WATER AND ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...COMPLETE DISSIPATION SHOULD
OCCUR BY 24 TO 36 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 25.0N  98.1W    90 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 25.1N  99.4W    40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 25.2N 101.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 36HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 
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