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Hurricane EMILY


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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EMILY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  WHILE THE MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 90 KT...THE WINDS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ON THE LAST PASS...AND THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS DECREASED.  SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
COVERED THE EYE SEEN EARLIER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT...AND
THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.  THE NEXT PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE IN EMILY ABOUT 0930Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13...WITH THE EYE WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300
DEGREES ACCORDING TO THE AIRCRAFT FIXES.  EMILY REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HR.  RAWINSONDE DATA FROM TEXAS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...AS 20-30 METER
HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED.  ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE EMILY IN THE RIGHT PLACE. 
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH THE BIG
QUESTION OF WHEN AND HOW SHARP WILL THE TURN BE.  SINCE THE STORM
IS NOT YET OFF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...THE NEW TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  HOWEVER...IF THE TURN IS LATER OR MORE GRADUAL THAN
FORECAST...EMILY COULD MAKE LANDFALL CLOSER TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

WITH THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND THE RETURN OF STRONG
CONVECTION...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR EMILY TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL LANDFALL.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STORM TO
REACH CATEGORY THREE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL...A VALUE SOMEWHAT
ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS GFDL
RUN.  EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY 72 HR.
 
IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO TEXAS.  THEREFORE...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 23.5N  93.5W    80 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 24.1N  95.2W    90 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 24.5N  97.3W   100 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 24.5N  99.6W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 24.5N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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