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Hurricane EMILY


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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005
 
THE LAST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INDCIATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAD RISEN TO 948
MB...AND THAT THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED
TO 134 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.  SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THERE ARE
MIXED SIGNALS ON THE STRUCTURE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT THERE HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP COOLING NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE EYE
HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 125
KT BASED ON THE LAST AIRCRAFT DATA.  THE CANCUN RADAR SUGGESTS AN
OUTER EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR CAN NOT YET
RELIABLY SEE THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE EYE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17...JUST A LITTLE RIGHT OF 6 HR AGO. 
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKELY
DUE TO BETTER MODEL ANALYSES OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON THE
SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR MORE
OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST.  THIS
CAUSES THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO FORECAST LESS OF A WESTWARD TURN WHILE
EMILY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES THE MODELS TO
FORECAST LANDFALL FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED A LITTLE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE GUIDANCE SHIFT AND IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE INSTEAD OF THE NORTHERN EDGE.  THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
 
GIVEN THE COOLING TOPS AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN...A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  HOWEVER...IF AN OUTER EYEWALL IS FORMING THIS BECOMES
LESS LIKELY.  EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THEN
RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOW MUCH EMILY COULD
INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF WILL DEPEND ON JUST WHAT STRUCTURE EMERGES
FROM YUCATAN...SO THERE IS A LARGER THAN NORMAL POSSIBLE ERROR ON
THE 24-48 HR INTENSITY FORECASTS.  NEVERTHELESS...EMILY IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 19.4N  85.2W   125 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 20.4N  87.5W   125 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 21.8N  90.4W    90 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 23.0N  93.2W   100 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 23.9N  95.7W   105 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 25.5N 105.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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