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Tropical Depression THREE


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INNER CORE...WHILE OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 3-6 HOURS.
A SHIP NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 33 KT WINDS AROUND
18Z...BUT THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION PRECLUDES
INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT THIS TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/11. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
SEEMS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION ENVELOPE APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AS
IT PASSES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT...OR EAST...COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOT AS RESTRICTED AS IT HAS
BEEN DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS...AND CIRRUS HAS BEEN NOTED
PUSHING MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
PATTERN...A BATTLE EXISTS BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND THE
VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST. THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN WINNING
OUT FOR THE MOST PART...AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES THAT TREND.
FOR THAT REASON...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST EVEN
THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW AND SSTS ARE NEAR 29C. OF COURSE
...BY 26 HOURS...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN LOUSIANA DURING THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM
PERIOD...SO THERE MAY BE ONE LAST DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION AT THAT
TIME WHICH COULD ALLOW TH SYSTEM TO REACH 50 KT OR SO INTENSITY.
 
THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA IS NOT UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 23.9N  89.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 25.6N  90.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 27.6N  90.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 29.4N  91.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 31.0N  90.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 32.5N  89.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 33.5N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
120HR VT     10/0000Z 34.5N  86.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 
 
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