Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
2100Z FRI SEP 17 2004
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA
ENGENIA.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ENGENIA TO SAN JOSE
DE LAS PALOMAS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 112.7W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 112.7W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 112.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N 113.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 27.0N 114.1W...NEAR BAJA COASTLINE
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 37.0N 112.5W...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 112.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
 
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