Hurricane JAVIER
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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132004
0300Z MON SEP 13 2004
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 104.2W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 104.2W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.9W
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.7N 105.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.7N 106.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.6N 106.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.5N 107.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 107.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 20.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 104.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
FORECASTER JARVINEN
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