Tropical Storm ESTELLE

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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072004
1500Z FRI AUG 20 2004
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 137.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.8N 139.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 141.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.3N 142.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 144.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 137.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
 
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