Hurricane KARL

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HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
0900Z MON SEP 20 2004
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  45.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 250SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  45.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  45.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N  46.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.3N  48.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.1N  49.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N  50.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.5N  48.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 38.0N  44.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 49.0N  43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  45.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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