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Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004

THE LATEST BD ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW AN ASYMMETRICAL JAVIER.
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND JAVIER
LOOKS TO HAVE STRETCHED A BIT ALONG A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LINE.
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA GIVE A CONSENSUS OF
100 KTS. THE UW-CIMSS ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ALSO
CONCURS WITH THE FORECAST CENTER ESTIMATES...HENCE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KTS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 325/7 KT AS JAVIER HAS MOVED IN A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH AN OCCASIONAL WOBBLE. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING JAVIER
PARALLEL TO THE BAJA PENINSULA COASTLINE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. BEYOND 48
HRS...JAVIER IS PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL WEST COAST TROUGH BUILDS. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE VORTEX TRACKERS
LOSE THE CIRCULATION OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF JAVIER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS FROM 0-72 HRS
AND BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...ANY REMNANT CIRCULATION OF JAVIER WILL
BE QUICKLY SWEPT WELL INTO THE WESTERN STATES.

THE TRACK OF JAVIER WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. JAVIER WILL TRACK INTO MUCH COOLER SSTS AS IT NEARS
CENTRAL BAJA AND AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS JAVIER AT HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE 0-36 HR TIME FRAME AS IT STAYS IN ABOVE 25 DEGREE
CELSIUS SSTS. BEYOND 36 HRS...THE SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SSTS ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND JAVIER RAPIDLY WEAKENS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS SCENARIO. 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE RE-ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 21.4N 111.7W   100 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 22.2N 112.3W   100 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 23.6N 113.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 25.4N 114.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 27.5N 114.1W    55 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 33.0N 112.5W    30 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     21/0600Z...INLAND
 
 
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